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Gold Acquittal 'would catapult Zuma into the presidency'
November 04, 2005 Edition 1
Mariette le Roux
Pretoria: Nothing would stop Jacob Zuma becoming the next president of the ruling African National Congress, and possibly the country, if he was acquitted of corruption, political analysts said yesterday.
"If he is found not guilty and if he is not tainted he will be catapulted into the presidency," said the Human Sciences Research Council's Adam Habib.
"He will be unbeatable."
Independent analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said: "If Zuma is acquitted, not even a bullet will stop him."
Addressing an Institute for Security Studies seminar on the "crisis" in the ANC, both anticipated Zuma's so-called left-wing support base would be disappointed should he become the country's next leader.
Zuma would face the same constraints on economic and social issues that President Thabo Mbeki did, said Habib.
Said Matshiqi: "If a medical doctor were to examine Zuma he would most probably not find a single left-wing bone in his body. He is a candidate of the left simply because he is not Mbeki."
Other candidates for the presidency were businessmen Tokyo Sexwale, Cyril Ramaphosa and Saki Macozoma, with "dark horses" Kgalema Motlanthe and Joel Netshitenzhe, Matshiqi said.
Habib said the public spat lay in opposing approaches in the ruling party to macro-economic strategy.
Proponents of the current strategy, Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear), were seen as technocrats with little regard for the poor by the left - in turn labelled populists.
Zuma's support was not the result of his own stance on the topic, but of popular unhappiness with Mbeki's agenda, Habib said.
Should the succession race open up with Zuma's conviction, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka was a leading contender by virtue of her office, Habib said. But she was unlikely to be supported by the left - represented by the Congress of SA Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party.
A candidate would have to be found who was acceptable to Mbeki and Zuma supporters.
"We can expect the battle to rage on for the next 18 months."
The "really big nightmare", Habib added, would be if Zuma's trial coincided with the ANC's next national conference in 2007.
Were the two processes to run concurrently, Matshiqi said, there was a threat of the judiciary being "sucked into" internal ANC processes.
Centre for Policy Studies analyst Steven Friedman doubted the future of South Africa depended on who won the battle.
He rejected assertions that the country would become a "banana republic" under Zuma or a dictatorship under Mbeki.
"The current governance style could quite possibly remain unchanged, whoever won."
Among the so-called "new elite", he added, problems with Zuma were not necessarily about his politics or the company he kept, but his being considered "an uncouth fellow who did not go to the right universities or read the right books".
Matshiqi said the Zuma affair was likely to clarify the "relationship between money and politics" in South Africa.
Personality played a big role in the divide, Matshiqi said.
Zuma was seen to be friendly and amiable, and Mbeki aloof and disdainful. "Everybody likes a nice man. Being a nice man in this battle can win you a lot of political capital. Sometimes it is as easy as that."
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