Elections are a giant step for Congolese tired of dictators and rebel violence
July 28, 2006 Edition 1
Beauregard Tromp
Masisi, DRC: As Congolese head to the polls on Sunday for their first really democratic plebiscite in 46 years, they seem determined to throw off the shackles of terror inflicted on them by various armed groups and to demand their long-denied right to determine their own futures.
As evidence of their new-found courage, the 25 million-odd voters of the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to reject the rebel group which has determined so much of the country's history over the last decade - the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD).
Even in its traditional heartland in the east, the RCD, which helped rid the country of the dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, is expected to take a pounding. The big question is how it will respond to losing.
"Amani" (peace) is the mantra on most people's lips in and around the district of Masisi, in the eastern province of North Kivu, traditional power base of the RCD. Its voting population of just over 400 000 voters makes it an important seat to capture in the historic July 30 elections.
During the devastating civil war between 1998 and 2001 between the forces of Joseph Kabila and the RCD, countless civilian lives were lost. Many of the atrocities were blamed on the RCD, which, with its heavily-Tutsi leadership, is seen as the agent of neighbouring Rwanda.
In the rural heartland of the North-Kivu province where the RCD - the de facto rulers of this province - supporters seem thin on the ground. Even in its own ranks, support for the RCD seems indecisive.
"I cannot tell you who I will vote for. It is a secret," said Imani Balingeme, the second in command of the Masisi RCD branch, sternly.
He admits party officials are despondent because they have not been paid. They have decided to go on strike before Sunday's election. Nonetheless, he does not see a loss for the RCD as a reason to dispute the election results or go back to war.
"Though there is no campaign for RCD, I am sure the elections will be free and fair," he said.
From his vantage point in Masisi town, where a giant poster of Kabila dominates the square, the result of the election in Masisi is clear-cut.
"As RCD we are second to Joseph Kabila," he said. "Kabila's party is favoured because there has not been any motivation from our own party."
The RCD currently holds one of the key vice-president posts through its leader Azarias Ruberwa, as part of a transitional government. Many of their soldiers who now form part of the national army have not been integrated with their counterparts and are seen as a threat to stability.
Along with much of the poorly paid DRC national army, the FARDC, the soldiers often loot villagers.
But the fearless assertion by locals that they will vote for Kabila indicates that a terrorised people are now at last confronting their fears.
Interestingly, it is the unarmed opposition, veteran politician Ettiene Tshisekedi's UDPS, which has been involved in most pre-election violence, occurring nearly exclusively in Kinshasa.
With rebel groups mostly in the east, the people there still have fond memories of the late President Laurent Kabila, who liberated them from the tyranny of Mobutu Sese Seko, which should translate into support for his son.
This is interspersed with small pockets of support for the RCD and even Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo.
The RCD's hardline support, though, is confined to minorities, like the Banyamulenge, the DRC's ethnic Tutsis, who are largely marginalised by the greater Congolese society.
Ruberwa may also pick up significant support in the two Kasais, but these voters will probably go the way of Olenga Ngoy, the people here traditionally favouring a man from their own province.
Bemba is likely to get most of his support from his heartland in the northern Equateur Province.
With 33 candidates for president, it is unlikely any one candidate will win outright. This will require a second round of voting, for which there has been no provisional planning or budget.
Also, with a high percentage of the 25.8 million voters expected to turn out on Sunday and ballot books of more than 400 pages per voter, it seems increasingly likely that several more days will have to be added to ensure every citizen has time to understand and vote.
For now the traditional bad guys, the militias and other negative forces, have agreed to let elections pass without incident. But they are seen as an ace up the sleeve for any who might be unhappy with the result.
With allegations of vote-rigging and fraud abounding, some attacks on political rallies and inequitable distribution of media resources, there already exists more than enough reason for political parties to contest the result.
Unfortunately, many women in this highly paternalistic society seem unlikely to vote for a candidate of their choice, instead following the lead of their husbands or fathers.
On the outskirts of Masisi lives Emacule Nikuze, whose husband is a soldier and has been posted to another province.
"Since my husband is not here, I do not know who to vote for. I will ask my father," she said.
All along the road, in the small communes where four or five huts stand together, the voting pattern seems unanimous - Kabila.
"I want a leader who will bring us peace. We need security," said Mungwiko Habamuremi, who earns his living as a logger. He, too, will vote for Kabila.
A Catholic, he has decided to vote, although he has heard the message from Congolese Catholic Bishop Mushongo, calling for a boycott of the election.
"The church can also be wrong," he explained.
Inevitably, the international community will endorse the result when Joseph Kabila is declared president.
He is also being urged to form a government of national unity. This would closely resemble the present transitional government framework.
But though it might discourage losers from taking up arms again, it may also perpetuate the current paralysis where the state has been largely incapacitated from making real decisions because of various senior roleplayers pulling in different directions.
Most local Congolese, who closely follow the political nuances in their country, believe they have not yet seen the true Kabila, who they say is hamstrung by his four vice-presidents.
Whatever happens in a post-election phase, the completion of relatively free and fair elections in the DRC will be a huge step forward for a country whose people are tired of having their leaders foisted upon them.
